
Market Outlook
By Thomas L. Fidler, Jr., MacKenzie Retail
Although the current status of the national retail market continues to show sluggish growth, early signs within the start of 2012 are creating optimism in both sales and leasing projections for this year. Absent the presence of national economic concerns, national political matters, and ongoing concerns in the housing market, consumer activity and spending has been brisk in the 1st Quarter. With consumer spending showing an increase, following a positive expenditure report for the 2011 holiday season, and not to mention the warm winter months, both local and national retailers are seeing positive growth in year to date sales over last year statistics, but only in certain market segments or price points. Continued growth in value based on dollar sensitive retailing operations are the prominent recipients of this optimism. In addition, the retail service sectors of casual dining, spa, salon, and entertainment are reporting an uptick in sales and consumer activity. Fashion continues to experience sporadic growth in the extremes of the low and high price points; middle America retailers continue to struggle in their search for increased sales.
On the local retail front, excitement continues to build over the current development projects in the Baltimore metro area; Canton Crossing, Foundry Row, Waugh Chapel South, Boulevard at Box Hill, Maple Lawn, and Metro Center. The recent announcement of jcpenney to locate at the Box Hill project in Abingdon, MD., the only US store currently planned, should be a great bolster to tenant interest. The upcoming public hearings on the planned Foundry Row in Owings Mills, to be anchored by Wegmans Food Market, should generate substantial interest. Early reports on tenant interest in the project are exceeding expectations.
Market activity for small shop leasing has been brisk with many local retail business owners believing that the market has reached its bottom and improvement has begun. Now's the time to get in before that great opportunity is no longer available. Landlords continue to show their willingness to be flexible with rent reductions, abatements, and creative leasing packages. With a current expectation of little change in the market rental rates and vacancy, the upcoming months should give way to stronger leasing activity, a small absorption in inventory of available space, and a slight increase in the average market rental rate.

Notable Transactions
Lease
| Location | Submarket | Tenant | Amount Leased SF |
| 8115 Belair Road | White Marsh/Perry Hall | Overstock Furniture | 30,000 sf |
| 801-809 Goucher Boulevard | York Road Corridor | Home Goods | 21,000 sf |
| 130-170 W. Ridgeley Road | York Road Corridor | GolfTEC | 21,000 sf |
Sale
| Location | Submarket | Price | PSF | Size |
| 1351 Blair Road | Annapolis | $4,025,000 | $1,085.20 | 3,709 sf |
| 3732 St. Paul Street | Baltimore City | $1,600,000 | $756.14 | 2,116 sf |
| 8191 Westside Boulevard | Columbia | $2,000,253 | $555.63 | 3,600 sf |
(r) Renewal

* All information furnished regarding property for sale, rent, exchange or financing is from sources deemed reliable. No representation is made as to the accuracy thereof and all such information is submitted subject to errors, omissions, or changes in conditions, prior sale, lease or withdrawal without notice. All information should be verified to the satisfaction of the person relying thereon. Portions of the base statistics are from CoStar Property data. Data as of 3/2012.
| Number of Buildings | 2,119 |
| Market Size (sf) | 99,464,859 |
| Change Since Last | |||
| Current | QTR | YR | |
| Direct Vacancy | 5.87% | ||
| Vacancy W/ Sublet | 6.10% | ||
| Net Absorbtion | 231,191 | ||
| Avg. Asking Rent | $18.18 | ||
Above:Rental rates continued their slow journey upwards, rising slightly from $17.79 in the fourth quarter to $18.18 psf.
Above: Reisterstown Road continues to see the highest vacancy rate within the Baltimore MSA even as more planned retail is scheduled for delivery in 2013.
Above: The Baltimore Retail Market resembles a "hub and spoke" configuration, with many of the submarkets following the major roads in and out of Baltimore City.